Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Instability and Terrorism

Abstract

Strategic surprise, the realization that one's knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary has an upper hand, is a national security nightmare (Amidon, 2005; Defense Science Board, 2015; Handel, 1984). Classic examples include Pearl Harbor, Sputnik, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the September 11, 2001 terror attacks. This report addresses two types of surprises, Black Swans and Gray Rhinos. Black Swans are surprising, high-impact events produced by complex systems of non-linear interactions that are inherently unpredictable. In contrast, Gray Rhinos are surprising events whose indicators exist and should have been obvious but were missed because we were not looking or properly assessing them. This report presents statistical models that identify the drivers of Gray Rhino events and provide insight into Black Swan events in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). Political instability and terrorism are the two types of events modeled.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 03, 2020
Accession Number
AD1097405

Entities

People

  • Jeffrey Day
  • Lawrence A. Kuznar

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • Counter WMD
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Birds
  • Civil War
  • Climate Change
  • Data Mining
  • Economics
  • Ethnic Groups
  • Failed States
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Information Science
  • International Relations
  • Machine Learning
  • Minority Groups
  • National Security
  • Natural Resources
  • Political Systems
  • Societies
  • Terrorism

Readers

  • Fault Tolerant Diagnosis of Black and White Balloon Isolation Tests Using ¥.
  • Strategic Security Studies

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML