The Utility of Self-Assessment in Predicting Program Office Estimate Accuracy

Abstract

The ability of the Program Offices to provide accurate cost estimates is an essential element in planning and programming. Historically, cost estimating has led to budget overruns and continues to be an area of scrutiny and concern. A series of legislative reforms have sought to address each of these perceived underlying causes which are located at all levels of decision making from the SPO to CADE. The current study is specifically interested in determining how well SPOs are doing. There have not been comprehensive studies on SPO performance. In large part, this deficiency is due to the inability to systematically assess the SPOs. However, a new consolidation of data by AFLCMC has recently made it possible to do such a study. The AFLCMCs program office estimates in this study will look at the SPOs of AFLCMC and evaluate their cost estimates for growth and also determine if their established method of self-assessment provides a predictor of the overall future accuracy of the program estimate.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 26, 2020
Accession Number
AD1100883

Entities

People

  • Dana P. Luketic

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Aircrafts
  • Business Administration
  • Computer Programming
  • Contractors
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Engineering
  • Governments
  • Guidance
  • Information Science
  • Judgment
  • Law
  • Management Personnel
  • Military Personnel
  • Organizational Structure
  • Procurement
  • Regression Analysis
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Systems Engineering
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Readers

  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis