Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Evolution of Key Concepts
Abstract
This paper assesses the evolution in Russian military strategy on the question of escalation management, or intra-war deterrence, across the conflict spectrum from peacetime to nuclear war. Russias overarching approach to deterrence, called strategic deterrence, represents a holistic concept for shaping adversary decision making by integrating military and non-military measures. It integrates conventional, non-strategic nuclear, and nuclear weapons on a spectrum of strategic deterrence actions. Key concepts in Russian approach to deterrence include deterrence by fear inducement, deterrence through the limited use of military force, and deterrence by defense. In a conflict, Russian escalation management concepts can be roughly divided into periods of demonstration, adequate damage infliction, and retaliation. Russian strategic culture emphasizes cost imposition over denial, believing in forms of calibrated damage as a vehicle by which to manage escalation. This so-called deterrent damage is meant to be dosed, applied in an iterative manner, with associated targeting and damage levels. Despite acquiring nonnuclear means of deterrence, Russia continues to rely on nuclear weapons to deter and prosecute regional and large-scale conflicts, seeing these as complementary means within a comprehensive strategic deterrence system. The paper summarizes debates across authoritative Russian military-analytical literature beginning in 1991 and incorporates translated graphics and tables. The concluding section discusses implications for US and allied forces.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 13, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1102855
Entities
People
- Anya Fink
- Dmitry Gorenburg
- Jeffrey Edmonds
- Kasey Stricklin
- Katherine Baugham
- Mary Chesnut
- Michael Kofman
Organizations
- Center for Naval Analyses