NATO Cohesion: The Threat Posed by ISIL
Abstract
ISIL's declaration of an Islamic Caliphate in June 2014 sent shockwaves through the international environment. A following trans-national terror campaign under ISIL's black flag resulted in several countermeasures against the new geopolitical threat that have reduced the terror organization geographical control over its previous conquered terrain, and has forced ISIL to transition to an insurgency organization. The thesis addresses ISIL's transition to the insurgency, and examine how the terror organization's strategy and current state may pose a threat to NATO within the next five years. First, the paper explains fundamental theories of terrorism and ISIL's history, before analyzing ISIL's strategy and ISIL's capabilities to impose its strategy. Second, NATO's critical vulnerabilities are discussed through a Center of Gravity analysis. In the final phase, the thesis answers the research question by discussing if ISIL has the intention (strategy) and capability to exploit any of NATO's critical vulnerabilities.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 14, 2019
- Accession Number
- AD1105114
Entities
People
- Eirik W. Hognestad
Organizations
- United States Army Command and General Staff College