Modeling and Predicting Individual Scientific Impact
Abstract
We accomplished several important findings in the third year (from Feb 1, 2019, to Jan 31, 2020). First, we discovered the mechanisms that govern the dynamics of failures, which was published in Nature. In this paper, we develop a simple one parameter model that mimics how successful future attempts build on past efforts. Solving this model analytically suggests that a phase transition separates the dynamics of failure into regions of progression or stagnation. Our second finding about the early-career setback was published in Nature Communications. We analyzed junior scientists whose proposals that fell just below and just above the funding threshold. Although near-miss significantly increases attrition in NIH system, individuals with near misses systematically outperform those with narrow wins in the longer run. Third, we discovered the mechanisms governing the dynamics of the substitutive system for subjects ranging from mobile handsets to automobiles and from smartphone apps to scientific fields. We find that early growth patterns follow a power law with non-integer exponents and uncover three generic ingredients governing substitutions. This paper has been published in Nature Human Behavior. Lastly, we curated a novel dataset on the career profiles of near all Nobel Laureates and published this dataset in Scientific Data. We analyzed this dataset and find that apart from their prize-winning work, the careers of Nobel laureates follow the same patterns as those of the majority of scientists. The result has been published in Nature Review Physics.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 19, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1107183
Entities
People
- Dashun Wang
Organizations
- Northwestern University