Chinas Demographic Disaster: Risk and Opportunity
Abstract
Demographics are one aspect of the operational environment that enable analysts to reasonably forecast future populations structures, to include unique problems and security challenges which could affect domestic and the international arenas. In Chinas case, a demographic crisis is developing, and a confluence of factorsan aging population, a shrinking work force, unparalleled gender disparity, and millions of involuntary bachelorswill shape the nations domestic trajectory. Some of the causal phenomena, such as lower fertility and birthrates, are predictable and natural consequences of most advanced societies. Exacerbating Chinas current and future demographic challenges are their domestic policies, past and present, with respect to family planning and social security. Moreover, Chinas demographic picture is projected to worsen over the next decade, and it will likely accelerate the countrys current economic slowdown. Greater social instability is also expected. Chinas economic disruptions, correlated with their internal demographics will ultimately influence their external security concerns vis--vis the United States. As the US searches for a strategy to compete with China, accounting for Chinas projected abnormal demographics and their deleterious effects may offer diplomatic opportunities and an avenue of continuing advantage that the US desperately seeks against the growing regional hegemon.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 23, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1107483
Entities
People
- Tiffany Werner
Organizations
- Air Command and Staff College