Hedging Our Bets in Turkey: Preparing for Both Dictatorship and Regime-Shift Hypotheses
Abstract
Due to the geostrategic importance of military basing in Turkey, the United States(US) must prepare for the possibilities of either a regime-shift to a more consolidated democracy or the recent democratic backsliding resulting in a completely authoritarian regime. Half a century of struggling through the democratization process came to an abrupt halt in the early years of the twenty-first century. The lack of necessity for US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces to protect Turkey from external threats has culminated in two decades of democratic backsliding and its rapprochement with Russia. These issues pose the most pressing basing-related challenge for the US and significantly harm the ability to achieve the necessary popular support required to maintain basing access in this geostrategic region. Recent chilling effects between America and its Turkish protectorate threaten US geostrategic national interests. As a result of increasingly complicated US-Turkey relations, future basing agreements will hinge on Turkish domestic politics and whether Turkey pivots back towards full democracy or continues its slide towards autocracy.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 28, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1108150
Entities
People
- Austin Deeney
Organizations
- Air Command and Staff College