NAS-Wide Performance: Impact of Select Uncertainty Factors and Implications for Experimental Design

Abstract

As Air Navigation Service Providers across the globe invest in and deploy operational upgrades in alignment with the ICAO Global ATM Operational Concept [1], performance justification is required for these investments [2]. Pre-deployment, these are frequently justified at a national or regional scale through modeling and simulation (M and S) activities quantifying the total performance impact of operational improvements. Often, these improvements can deliver value through relatively small changes in performance thereby necessitating M and S capabilities capable of differentiating the effect of the proposed improvement from the effect of modeling variability. One area of modeling variability which current M and S practices attempt to compensate for is the variation in performance occurring across days [3-4]. This is typically accomplished through the use of a carefully-selected set of days seeking to be representative of the NAS performance across a given year. These selected days are referred to as design days. Modeling is then performed on the design days and statistics are obtained to gather the performance under a baseline and a treatment case. Current practices model each day in the set of design days once, with averaging across all design days to yield annual estimates of performance.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2011
Accession Number
AD1108469

Entities

People

  • Billy Jr Baden
  • Gareth O. Coville
  • Seli Agbolosu-amison
  • Stphane Mondoloni

Organizations

  • MITRE Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Navigation
  • Air Traffic
  • Air Traffic Controllers
  • Corporations
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Errors
  • Experimental Design
  • Information Science
  • Parallel Computing
  • Parallel Processing
  • Perturbations
  • Simulations
  • Statistics
  • Uncertainty
  • Workload

Readers

  • Aviation Safety and Air Traffic Management
  • Circadian Sleep-Wake Regulation and Chronobiology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation