Stabilizing Eastern Syria After ISIS
Abstract
The U.S.-led international coalition to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has achieved substantial progress over the past several years, but the counter-ISIS campaign is not over. The authors assessed humanitarian needs in Eastern Syrias Middle Euphrates River Valley (MERV). They also examined how locally focused stabilization efforts might be orchestrated to help preclude the Islamic States recapture of territory, even as Syrias larger civil conflict continues unabated and is growing more complex. This report opens with a sociocultural perspective on the MERVs human terrain, explicating long-standing divisions within and among the Valleys Sunni Arab tribes that may pose challenges to restoring broadly accepted local governance. The authors then assess the regions most urgent post-ISIS needs, focusing intensively on the status of its critical infrastructuree.g., bridges, hospitals, transit facilitiesas well as its natural resources, human displacement, and economic activity. In the political sphere, the authors examined how stabilization efforts might be pursued in a region where both the Syrian government and nonstate actors are filling a vacuum left by a common enemys loss of territorial control. The authors then analyzed the pluses and minuses of attempting to overcome these challenges via either a separated division of labor approach to stabilization (i.e., a steer clear approach) or a more collaborative Interactive approach. The authors recommend that both sides should start with a minimalist steer clear option but incrementally move toward a more interactive approach, as conditions permit.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1108806
Entities
People
- Eric Robinson
- James A Schear
- James F. Dobbins
- Jeffrey Martini
- Michelle E. Miro
Organizations
- RAND Corporation