Estimation of Technology Convergence by 2035
Abstract
How, when, and where are artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum technology, nanotechnology, neurotechnology, autonomous technology, robotics, and information technology likely to converge in ways relevant to the United States Army over the next 15 years? Multiple methodologies were used to determine key findings and convergences, including Eigenvector network analysis and the Millhone analysis technique. The results of this study were provided to Mr. Thomas F. Greco, leader of the self-styled Mad Scientists, and executive agent to United States Army Training and Doctrine Command. How, when, and where are artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, quantum technology, nanotechnology, neurotechnology, autonomous technology, robotics, and information technology likely to converge in ways relevant to the United States Army over the next 15 years? Based on 31 innovations likely to occur across all eight of the named disciplines, there are at least six distinct, substantial technology convergences also likely to occur that are relevant to the United States Army over the next 15 years. A compelling metanalytic finding based in large part on viewing the disciplines and their associated innovations in a network rather than in isolation, is that robotics, AI, and autonomous systems will likely benefit the most from innovations in theirs and other disciplines, followed closely by biotechnology, information technology, and quantum technology. The two remaining disciplines, neurotechnology and nanotechnology, did not appear to benefit substantially from the identified innovations in the other disciplines; however, they were mass enablers of the advancements in the other fields.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1109853
Entities
People
- Lance Vann
- Louis Duncan
- Nicholas Delcour
- Patrick Lancaster
- Stephen Frahm
Organizations
- Air Force Research Laboratory
- United States Army War College
- United States Naval Academy
- foreign affairs ministry