Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Initial Operational Capability (IOC) Ensemble system
Abstract
The Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy-ESPC) is the new global coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice prediction system developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for operational forecasting for timescales of days to subseasonal. This report describes and evaluates the Navy-ESPC model. When the Navy-ESPC model becomes operational, it will be the first time NRLs operational partner, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, will provide coupled atmosphere ocean sea-ice forecasts, atmosphere forecasts past 16 days, and ocean and sea ice ensemble forecasts. A unique aspect of the Navy-ESPC model is that the global ocean model is eddy resolving at 1/12 in the ensemble and at 1/25 in high-resolution deterministic configurations. The component models consist of currently operational systems and include: atmosphere - NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM); ocean - HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM); and sea ice - Community Ice CodE (CICE). Physics updates to improve the simulation of equatorial phenomena, particularly the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and to provide more consistent air-sea fluxes, were introduced into NAVGEM. No physics updates to accommodate coupling were included in HYCOM or CICE. Data assimilation is loosely coupled between the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System - Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) for the atmosphere and the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) for the ocean/ice components. A 16 member ensemble configuration and high-resolution deterministic configuration are evaluated based on analyses and forecasts run from February 2017 to January 2018. When compared to other operational centers, the Navy-ESPC model performs in a similar manner when examining large-scale atmospheric characteristics, such as the MJO, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and other indices.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 03, 2019
- Accession Number
- AD1111596
Entities
People
- Carolyn Reynolds
- Clark D. Rowley
- Justin McLay
- Matthew Janiga
- Neil P Barton
- Patrick Hogan
- Prassad Thoppil
Organizations
- United States Naval Research Laboratory