Aircraft Structural Reliability and Risk Analysis Handbook - Volume 2: Structural Fatigue Degradation and Probability of Failure Examples

Abstract

This handbook provides examples of how to calculate single flight probability of failure (SFPOF) as a result of fatigue degradation of a structure. The examples begin with one random variable (fracture toughness) and increase incomplexity to three random variables (fracture toughness, equivalent initial damage size (EIDS), and maximum stress during a flight). A final example demonstrates how to model the effect of nondestructive inspections on the SFPOF using the probability of detecting a fatigue crack of a given size. All examples are worked using Monte Carlo simulation. The algorithms used were written as macros within Microsoft Excel, and are provided in appendices. Procedures for determining the probability distributions for the EIDS and the maximum stress during a flight are presented. Uncertainty about the probability distributions for the random variables and in the resulting SFPOF are also discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 2020
Accession Number
AD1111926

Entities

People

  • Eric J. Tuegel

Organizations

  • Air Force Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Air Force Research Laboratories
  • Aircrafts
  • Aluminum Alloys
  • Computational Science
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Detection
  • Governments
  • Information Science
  • Materials
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Risk Analysis
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • Standards

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.
  • Structural Health Monitoring of Composite Structures.