Examining The Role Of Decision Biases In Shaping Acquisition Decisions Within Defense Acquisition Program
Abstract
Our research questions the assumption of human rationality underlying the Government Accountability Offices (GAO) working theory that systemic incentives motivate defense acquisition participants to deviate from sound acquisition practices (incentives narrative) and explores whether systematic and predictable mental errors (cognitive biases) may also have a significant causal influence. We assessed the conclusiveness of GAOs incentives narrative and examined whether it is likely that cognitive biases significantly contribute to deviations from sound acquisition practices. First, we compiled a decision bias dictionary (DBD) of cognitive and motivational biases. Then, we evaluated a selection of case studies and used the DBD to assign one or more bias codes for passages indicating deviations from sound acquisition practices or situations/decisions that were likely susceptible to one or more decision biases. Our analysis identified 347 discrete instances in which a decision bias was evident, including a significant number of both cognitive and motivational biases. We also found that although GAOs incentives narrative was not represented as the singular correct view when it was initially proposed over 25 years ago, it has remained largely unchanged and unquestioned. Therefore, to improve the implementation of sound acquisition practices and ultimately improve acquisition outcomes, acquisition reform efforts must research and address both categories of decision biases.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1114618
Entities
People
- Diane M. Chong
- James K. Kiesling
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School