Alliance Theory: Understanding Turkeys Changing Alliance Behavior With NATO
Abstract
The current multipolar international system is fraught with uncertainty for states seeking security assurances. Alliances are tools of statecraft used to enhance the security of their members. Over the past seventy years, NATO has successfully achieved its raison dtrecollective defense. Yet, Turkey, a NATO ally since 1952, has increasingly diverged from its traditional alliance behavior. This has called into question Turkeys future role in NATO. Why would Ankara forge an informal alliance with Moscow and purchase Russias S-400, knowing that it would jeopardize NATOs security and undermine the Alliances cohesion? This thesis merges two complementary alliance theories with Turkish identity politics to explore the factors driving Turkeys perplexing behavior. Turkeys shifting alliance behavior is the result of increasing distrust between Turkey and the Alliance, structural changes to the international system, differing threat perceptions, and the Justice and Development Partys Ottoman Islamist ideology. These factors collided during the Syrian War as Turkeys and the rest of the Alliances security interests misaligned. Consequently, NATOs internal threat level surpassed its shared external threat levelseverely eroding the Alliances cohesion and compelling Turkey to change its alliance behavior. Despite Ankaras worrisome behavior, Turkey remains a vital NATO ally. Thus, the Alliance should seek to mend the rift, lest Turkey continue its divergent course.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1114717
Entities
People
- Peter Sr Rodriguez
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School