Bayesian Methods for Comparing Army National Guard (ARNG) and General Population (GP) Suicide Rates

Abstract

In this briefing, we estimate the relative suicide risk associated with Army National Guard (ARNG) membership, the extent to which demographic and geographic distribution explain that relative risk, and how that relative risk varies demographically and geographically. Estimating relative risk introduces a variety of complicating factors that we seek to address. We find a higher risk of suicide among ARNG members, most of which is explained by the high proportion and high suicide rate of young males in the ARNG. Geographical distribution also explains a small part of the higher risk of suicide in the ARNG. Across geography, we observe that ARNG and general population suicide rates are highly correlated, both being higher in the Mountain West. We also observe that the relative suicide risk associated with ARNG membership tends to be lower where suicide rates are higher.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 30, 2018
Accession Number
AD1118687

Entities

People

  • Allen S. Wang
  • David R. Graham
  • Jacqueline L. Du Bois
  • James M. Bishop
  • Michael R. Guggisberg
  • Nathaniel T. Latshaw
  • Susan L. Clark-sestak

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accounting
  • Demography
  • Department Of Defense
  • Geographic Distribution
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • Information Operations
  • Law
  • Markov Chains
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Mountains
  • National Guard
  • Observation
  • Risk Factors
  • Standardization
  • Statistical Inference

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Military Mobilization and Reserve Forces Studies.
  • Psychological Intervention/Treatment for Stress, Anxiety, PTSD, and Related Emotional and Cognitive Health Symptoms.
  • Statistical inference.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • Space