Peace Dividend: Widening the Economic Growth and Development Benefits of the Abraham Accords
Abstract
The Abraham Accords have heralded a dramatic shift in the relationship between Israel and the Muslim nations of the world. Over the course of just four months, from August to December 2020, four nationsthe United Arab Emirates (UAE),1 Bahrain,2 Sudan,3 and Morocco4initiated diplomatic processes to normalize bilateral ties with Israel. And observers have suggested that the accords could eventually grow to include as many as ten Muslim-majority nations. This Perspective explores the potential economic benefits of the AbrahamAccords. Building from an analytical approach that we developed in 2019,5 we assess the potential benefits of a comprehensive free trade agreement (FTA) grounded in these accords. Although these accords represent a major political breakthrough, our analysis suggests that they also represent a possible new chapter in the regions developmentaway from conflict and toward a shared vision of economic prosperity. Assuming that these new relations evolve into deeper economic integration, our analysis indicates that the economic benefits for Israels partners in this endeavor could be particularly significant, creating approximately 150,000 new jobs for just those four current signatories.6 This number could grow to more than 4 million new jobs and more than $1 trillion in new economic activity over a decade if the accords grow to include 11 nations, which some have speculated could be possible.7 President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. endorsed these accords during his candidacy for the office. In the first address to the United Nations Security Council on the Middle East since Biden was inaugurated, the acting representative of the U.S. mission to the United Nations, Ambassador Richard Mills, vowed to continue promoting normalization.8 Biden now has the opportunity to build on these accords and serve U.S. interests in the Middle East by making economic integration and equitable development a signature initiative of his policy in the region.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1125367
Entities
People
- Daniel Egel
- Linda Robinson
- Shira Efron
Organizations
- RAND Corporation