The Conceptual Design Reliability Prediction Method: Establishing Functional-Physical Reliability Relationships for System Reliability Predictions During Conceptual Design
Abstract
This paper presents a system reliability prediction method suitable for use during conceptual design, called the conceptual design reliability prediction method (CDRPM). The CDRPM extends the early design reliability prediction method (EDRPM) by facilitating parameter characterizations that follow non-normal distributions. Functional-physical reliability relationships are established through a hierarchical Bayesian model solved by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and aggregated using the systems reliability block diagram (RBD) to assess the likelihood of candidate architectures meeting a reliability requirement. Reliability predictions based on different types of failure data, specifically success ratios and failure rates, are compared herein in a case study of a generic launcher system assessed by the CDRPM. This research shows the effects of failure data type selection and distribution assumptions on architecture down-selection, leading to enhanced insight during conceptual design analysis.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1126560
Entities
People
- Elizabeth T. Rajchel
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School