Changing Tides or Adaptive Drift? An Analysis of Southeast Asia and the Influence of the People's Republic of China
Abstract
As the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) has increasingly expanded its economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region, Southeast Asia has specifically become one of the PRCs regional focus areas. The PRC has emphasized increasing political relationships and economic partnerships with Southeast Asian countries. Currently, the U.S. government lacks a quantitative assessment that measures the PRCs influence in the region by assessing the behaviors of the countries in Southeast Asia. This investigation seeks to identify if the PRCs economic investment in Southeast Asia is influencing measurable behavior. To analyze the PRCs influence, this research uses votes from the United Nations General Assembly and economic investment data to assess the relationship between the behaviors of Southeast Asian countries and the PRCs economic investment. The quantitative analysis of these factors finds that alignment with the PRC is stronger in poor countries when the trade balance is in the PRCs favor; however, under the same condition in richer countries, alignment with the PRC declines. Additionally, in the absence of aid (including loans and grants), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has a negative effect; however, when there is high investment in both the BRI and aid, there is a strong alignment with the PRC.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1126828
Entities
People
- Temesha R Christensen
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School