Great Power Competition in Central Asia: The Probability of Confrontation Between Russia and China in the Region
Abstract
According to many researchers, the potential for conflict in the Central Asian region will increase in the future. The authoritarian regimes in this region, beset by chronic domestic problems, are confronted by a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. At the center of this dynamic situation are the great powers Russia and China. Informed by these circumstances, this thesis employs the theories of neorealism and social constructivism to analyze the likelihood for Sino-Russian conflict in the Central Asian transfer region. These two theories provide contradictory approaches to explain international relations, which makes them especially useful for an accurate and thorough analysis. An examination of the shared experiences and domestic issues of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan shows how those issues shape the states' relationships to each other and individually with the great powers. The thesis also focuses on the roles of Russia and China in the region and the drivers shaping the foreign policy and behavior of these actors. Past research on the region and on Russia and China has focused primarily on the economic and military areas. This work aims to supplement earlier work by broadening that focus and applying the aforementioned theories to answer the question: What is the probability of confrontation between Russia and China in Central Asia?
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1126885
Entities
People
- Harald Fendrich
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School