Modeling Air Force Retention with Macroeconomic Indicators

Abstract

Officer retention has been a longstanding problem for Air Force leadership. Both intuition and previous research suggest economic and demographic factors play important roles in an officers decision to separate from service. Leading economic indicators are nationally reported statistics that tend to be predictive of where the economy is heading. This work targets the research gap of how leading economic indicators explain and predict attrition. Due to the noisy, complex nature of the data, the model had varied success in accurately predicting future attrition rates. As a result of this research, the current models can incorporate these findings to become more targeted and precise. Leadership who make key decisions regarding critically-manned career fields, career-specific retention bonuses, force shaping, consolidation measures, etc. will have higher-quality, better scoped results.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 25, 2021
Accession Number
AD1131189

Entities

People

  • Michelle K Mcgee

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Engineered Resilient Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Attrition
  • Commerce
  • Data Science
  • Demography
  • Department Of Defense
  • Governments
  • Human Behavior
  • Information Science
  • Knowledge Management
  • Leadership
  • Military Organizations
  • Predictive Modeling
  • Regression Analysis
  • Statistics
  • United States
  • United States Government

Readers

  • Economics
  • Naval Personnel Management
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.