USAF FMS Manpower Analysis: Manpower Ratios and Linear Regression
Abstract
This research studies the relationships between Air Force Foreign Military Sales (FMS) case factors and manpower authorizations. The Air Force FMS program has seen consistent annual increases in sales since 2017 and average annual growth of 7 percent since 2006. Manpower is a key factor in the continued success of the FMS program. The need to predict future manpower requirements and the lack of prior research in this area motivates this exploratory analysis to determine which FMS case factors are potential candidates to predict manpower needs. An initial comparison analysis of the available FMS case data was conducted, followed by the application of two commonly utilized manpower modeling methods: regression analysis and manpower ratios. A comparison analysis provided a common unit of analysis for case data and manpower data, Program Executive Office (PEO). It also provided a range of potential predictors of manpower with high correlations to manpower authorizations. A linear regression analysis determined total case value, case counts, and case density were useful in modeling the changes in manpower authorizations. An examination of potential manpower ratios for the Air Force FMS program suggests these ratios should be considered for additional research as the sample provided demonstrated a relative level of stability over time. This research provides a modern foundation for Air Force FMS manpower research and a better understanding of which case factors are useful for FMS manpower planning.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1136742
Entities
People
- Carlos A. Esguerra
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology