Training Subject Matter Experts to Make Better Estimates

Abstract

Subject Matter Expert (SME) Elicitation is commonly used as a cost-estimation method when no historical data exists. The elicitation process assumes Subject Matter Experts are the resident experts in their individual fields of study. In addition, the process assumes SMEs provide reasonably trustworthy cost estimates that follow the tenets of probability theory. This last assumption is the subject of this study. A Navy sponsored e-learning course was created to help train SMEs in understanding probability distributions (O'Hagan, 2019). We conducted a study hypothesizing that taking the e-learning course would improve study participant accuracy in estimating confidence intervals for probability distributions.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2021
Accession Number
AD1137989

Entities

People

  • Cameron R. Scott

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Distance Learning
  • Engineering
  • Information Science
  • Mental Processes
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Standards
  • Test And Evaluation
  • United States

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Statistical inference.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.