Prevailing Under the Nuclear Shadow: A New Framework for US Escalation Management
Abstract
The United States has characterized todays geopolitical environment as a long-term, strategic competition between nations.1 This competition includes renewed emphasis on the role of nuclear weapons in international affairs by the nuclear-armed competitors of the USRussia, China, and the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK). These adversaries view competition with the US as having a nuclear dimension that is not confined to high-end warfare. Accordingly, the US must anticipate that nuclear weapons will play a central role in a regional conflict with any of these opponents. This reality underscores the importance of preparing policy-makers to manage escalation during a conflict taking place under the nuclear shadow. The use of nuclear weapons in a war between the US and its allies and Russia, China, or the DPRK would be not only militarily significant, but would also have major political and normative consequences. Yet practical concepts for escalation management are lacking in the post-Cold War, contemporary great power context. To fill that gap, this report proposes foundational elements for a nuclear escalation management framework. This novel framework leverages key concepts from escalation theory and risk management literature to create a structured, analytical process for US policy-makers and planners to evaluate potential courses of action (COAs) that could be employed to achieve favorable escalation management with nuclear-armed competitors.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1145679
Entities
People
- Madison A. Estes
Organizations
- Center for Naval Analyses