Escalation with Iran: Outcomes and Implications for U.S. Interests and Regional Stability
Abstract
The Iranian political and security landscapes are notoriously opaque and complex. Myriad power centers and cross-cutting factions exist, representing the parts of the political spectrum deemed acceptable by the regime and sidelining the rest of society. Although censorship, repression, and voter suppression have been consistent features of the Islamic Republic since its inception in 1979, 2019 - the regime's 40th year in power - marked new trends. It revealed the regimes heightened perception of threats both at home and abroad, a new boldness in operations, and a new capability (the ability to completely shut down the internet). So far, Tehran's actions in 2020 indicate the regime's willingness to continue to attempt to sideline not only those outside of the regime's base but also groups and individuals typically associated with the pragmatist segments of the system. The regime is currently primarily engaged in two types of efforts to limit dissent: (1) preventing and stopping popular opposition and (2) limiting dissent within the ranks of the regime, which includes restricting certain factions involvement in the political process.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 28, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1146491
Entities
People
- Ariane M. Tabatabai
Organizations
- RAND Corporation