No-First Use of Nuclear Weapons: A Policy Assessment
Abstract
Section 1673 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2020 requires the Secretary of Defense to enter into a contract with a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) to conduct a study on the potential ramifications of U.S. adoption of a no-first use (NFU) policy, whereby a nuclear power pledges not to employ nuclear weapons except in response to an adversary's nuclear attack. Through policy research and analysis, extensive consultation with and interviews of subject matter experts (SMEs), classified methodologies, and subsequent synthesis, the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) illustrates how a significant reduction in the long-standing level of strategic ambiguity in U.S. declaratory policy regarding the potential employment of nuclear weapons might impact U.S. force posture, the views of U.S. allies, the views of U.S. adversaries and the risk of miscalculation, and nuclear nonproliferation. IDA concludes that U.S. adoption of an NFU policy will not bring about a setting that is more conducive to positive behavior by adversaries or to strengthened relations with allies. In light of existing constraints on U.S. policy and procedure governing nuclear use, the weight of the evidence indicates significant potential for NFU to impart more harm than good.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1148061
Entities
People
- Caroline R. Milne
- Heather W. Williams
- Rhiannon T. Hutton
- William A. Chambers
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses