Factors Shaping China's Use of Force Calculations Against Taiwan
Abstract
The People's Liberation Army's (PLA) primary modernization and planning priority since 1993 has been Taiwan. That year, the Central Military Commission (CMC) approved the Military Strategic Guidelines for the New Era, a document that served as the PLA's baseline military strategy until 2015. In the last few years, the PLA has expanded its operational focus by developing systems and capabilities that will enable it to more effectively assert the influence of the People's Republic of China (PRC), intimidate rival maritime claimants, and defend against challenges to China's territorial claims around its extensive periphery. Despite these developments and a growing recognition that the PLA must be capable of supporting China's increasing international interests and presence, Taiwan remains the PLA's main strategic direction - a designation that dictates its priority relative to other potential planning scenarios and hot spots. The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP's) sense of urgency regarding Taiwan has only increased with the ascendance of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party and major shifts in Taiwan's public opinion regarding questions of national identity and willingness to resist China. A core element of China's perceptions of its own ability to influence Taiwan is Beijing's assessment of PLA capabilities and efficacy in times of crisis. Although Beijing has a wide range of tools, the PLA's military capabilities are a foundational element, and they shape the range of options available to China's political leaders.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 18, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1148288
Entities
People
- Mark Cozad
Organizations
- RAND Corporation