Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons?: Proliferation Models as Concurrent Pressures on a State
Abstract
Why do states acquire nuclear weapons? In this paper, I look at three primary theoretical models of nuclear proliferation - Security Concerns, Domestic Politics, and Norms - and argue that the models inform why states seek nuclear weapons more accurately when applied together as distinct pressures on a state instead of as separate instances of reasoning. These three models are not always complete by themselves, but instead, each model is actually a definition of a pressure or force that acts upon states to move them towards or away from nuclear weapons. When present, these pressures act simultaneously with each other such that there is consistent force working on a state's decisions, potentially over the course of many years with changes to each of the pressures over time. By applying each proliferation model together, I argue that nuclear proliferation occurs when Domestic Politics Positive pressures and Normative-Positive pressures are greater than Domestic Politics-Negative pressures and Normative-Negative pressures given that a state is facing a Security threat. This hypothesis is scrutinized through the case study of India's proliferation and shows the progressive increase of nuclear positive pressures vis-a-vis nuclear negative pressures. Ultimately, the nuclear positive pressures exceeded nuclear negative pressures and propelled India from an avowed nuclear disarmament champion to conducting a nuclear test in the span of one decade. In support of current US efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, this enhanced model can be used by policymakers to better understand the nuclear positive and negative pressures on a potential proliferator, which will allow for nonproliferation actors to intervene at critical points and prevent nuclear positive pressure from pushing a state to proliferate as seen in the Indian case.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1148492
Entities
People
- Scott Curtice
Organizations
- Air Command and Staff College