Development and Verification of Extreme Space Weather Phenomena Models
Abstract
A range of 14 M-class flares from 1 June 2015 to 27 September 2016 were analyzed to find significant trends in electron frequency profile modeling using the GLobal airglOW (GLOW) model and radar parameters using a ray tracing algorithm developed by the Air Force Research Laboratory. GLOW was run for all the flares using three different solar spectrum schemes and an average of the three: the Hinter egger method, EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations (EUVAC), and a rebinned Flare Irradiance Spectrum Model (FISM) result. Comparing data for the E-layer where GLOW is most accurate, it was determined that GLOW using EUVAC performed best at the peak flare time for determining both the peak altitude and frequency of the E-region, while using FISM as a user-supplied spectrum in GLOW was less accurate for estimating both, likely due to the extreme variations in solar flux, coarse binning scheme, and lack of robust chemistry and energy calculations within GLOW. GLOW performed better at predicting peak altitude and frequency than the International ReferenceIonosphere (IRI), which is often used as a basis for ionosphere predictions. GLOW also outperformed IRI at modeling the radar parameters before and during the solar flares, though no significant trends were found. GLOW using EUVAC or FISM showed promise at predicting the radar parameters and their change over time, but the ray tracing algorithm produced solutions that varied between E- and F-layers and O- and X-modes, leading to results that were often skewed or varied drastically in time.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1148654
Entities
People
- Sophia G. Schwalbe
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology