Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions
Abstract
There are many reasons for U.S. policymakers to be concerned about the interventions of adversaries. First, adversary interventions might pursue outcomes that undermine or threaten U.S. interests. Second, adversary interventions might directly affect the activities and objectives of U.S. forces when they intervene in the same places. Finally, adversary interventions may directly threaten U.S. forces or U.S. allies. Despite their importance, however, there have been only limited analyses of the military intervention behavior of such countries as China, Russia, and Iran. In this report, we seek to address two sets of research questions: 1) First, we explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries have intervened militarily since 1946. 2) Second, we investigate why U.S. adversaries choose to initiate military interventions - that is, what factors drive U.S. adversaries to use military forces abroad? This report summarizes our approach and findings across all U.S. adversaries, and three companion reports consider Chinese, Russian, and Iranian military intervention behavior in detail. The four reports are intended broadly for U.S. national security practitioners and researchers and for intelligence and military planners and analysts. The insights and signposts identified in these reports can inform U.S. decisions about military posture, partnerships, and investments.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1148689
Entities
People
- Ariane M. Tabatabai
- Bryan A. Frederick
- Christian Curriden
- Edward Geist
- Jennifer Kavanagh
- Nathan Chandler
- Samuel Charap
- Timothy R. Heath
Organizations
- RAND Corporation