Halting Covid-19: PANDEMIC - A Predictive Model to Guide Response
Abstract
PANDEMIC is a new, time-dependent numerical model simulating the infectious spread of an epidemic in a heterogeneous, geographically dispersed region containing millions of people. Each individual can move from place to place and can interact with others while going to meetings (i.e. church or sports events),to places of work, to shop, and returning to or staying at home. The model uses an NRL-development, the Monotonic Lagrangian Grid (MLG), to track human proximity and calculate infection, viral transmission, illness and death. PANDEMIC was used to test the effects of human behavior patterns, including social distancing and quarantine strategies in the Washington DC Metropolitan region with 6.25 million people. Three 39-week scenarios from March 2020 through December 2020 are considered. These scenarios each had four stages marked by different activities to approximate what took place. Stage 1 was initially open and the covid-19 virus spread unchecked causing surge 1. Stage 2 was a 10 to 12-week lockdown down meant to blunt the first surge. Stage 3 was a limited more or-less open period where surge 2 of the pandemic got started. Stage 4 was also a limited lockdown in all three scenarios with some school opening. Scenario 1 approximates what actually happened. Scenario 2 increases the strength of the lockdown measures, reducing the (extrapolated) national death toll from 325,000 to about 22,000. Scenario 3 further increases the strength of the mitigation measures, as was done in South Korea and Japan, showing what might have been achieved without testing or vaccines.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 04, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1149423
Entities
People
- David R. Boris
- Jay Boris
- Keith Obenschain
Organizations
- United States Naval Research Laboratory