Analysis of Process, Product, and Context in Military Acquisitions

Abstract

The objective of this research is to identify key factors that impact the probability of success of a military material acquisition program. These key factors are intended to be incorporated in a wargaming-type acquisition game developed by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center. This project defines a successful military acquisition as a program that achieves a successful Milestone C decision and is not terminated or restructured. Measures of potential factors related to program cost, schedule, and performance were postulated and potential data sources identified. Data were drawn from Selected Acquisition Reports to Congress. Statistical analysis was conducted using data from 79 DOD ACAT I programs to determine correlations of initial program baseline cost, schedule, and performance data. Analysis determined that the percentage of a program's Key Performance Parameters that achieve their threshold values is the strongest indicator of a program achieving a successful Milestone C decision. The output of this capstone is a methodology that can be adapted for application in evaluating probability of successful military acquisitions in other countries or to incorporate stronger leading indicators of program success if data become available for analysis. Recommendations for further analysis and data collection efforts include categorizing programs based on the urgency of need, as well as the system's technology readiness levels at program initiation.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2021
Accession Number
AD1150817

Entities

People

  • David C. Garrison
  • Evan Barber
  • James C. Gallagher
  • Lane M. Berg
  • Richard M. Jr Lofthouse

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Business Administration
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Engineering
  • Engineers
  • Governments
  • Information Retrieval
  • Information Science
  • Knowledge Management
  • Military Acquisition
  • Military Applications
  • Military History
  • Mobile Phones
  • National Security
  • Predictive Modeling
  • Procurement
  • Program Management
  • Radio Equipment
  • Regression Analysis
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Stealth Technology
  • Systems Engineering
  • Unmanned Aerial Systems

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Systems Analysis and Design