Framing James Shoal: Prospect Theory's Usefulness in Territorial Dispute Arbitration

Abstract

Territorial disputes are a historical cause for war. For disputes that are well suited, arbitration provides a peaceful means to reduce the chance for escalated conflict. Prospect theory, specifically the framing of a dispute, provides a useful litmus test for arbitrability. This paper proposes that states able to frame a territorial dispute from a gains frame may successfully arbitrate their dispute. James Shoal, a submerged feature off the northwest coast of Borneo, provides a case study where Chinese and Malaysian framing of the dispute can be analyzed. The context of the dispute places Malaysian decision-makers in a gains frame. However, China can be disposed to a loss frame unless leaders place the James Shoal dispute into the broader context and strategy of Chinese rejuvenation. Ultimately, Malaysia and China can approach the James Shoal dispute from a gains frame and arrive at negotiations with risk-averse positions, forestalling future conflict.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 13, 2021
Accession Number
AD1152889

Entities

People

  • Brett A. Deangelis

Organizations

  • Naval War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Agreements
  • Arbitration
  • Asia
  • Bargaining
  • Case Studies
  • International Conflicts
  • International Relations
  • Malaysia
  • Negotiations
  • New York
  • Political Science
  • Psychology
  • Recreation
  • Security
  • South China Sea
  • Southeast Asia
  • Territorial Disputes
  • United Nations
  • United States
  • War Colleges
  • Zero-Sum Games

Readers

  • Asian Economic Studies
  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.