Improved Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Forecasts in Current and Future Forecasting Systems
Abstract
This report presents research conducted by Peter M. Finocchio as part of a Karles Fellowship at the Naval Research Laboratory. This research covered two topics that are highly relevant to battlespace environments: the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and the effect of Arctic summer cyclones on sea ice. The first part of this research on the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones involved implementing a series of idealized numerical simulations aimed at understanding how increasing vertical wind shear in the environment around a tropical cyclone affects rapid intensification differently depending on the stage of rapid intensification when the shear increases. The second part of this research is a statistical analysis of a large set of Arctic summer cyclones and the subsequent changes in sea ice after cyclone passage. Both parts of this project resulted in three peer reviewed publications (Finocchio and Rios-Berrios 2021, Finocchio and Doyle 2021, Fearon et al. 2021). These publications provide critical new understanding of cyclones and their impacts on Navy operations that will guide the development of Naval prediction systems and facilitate forecasting efforts in both the tropics and the Arctic.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 26, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1153861
Entities
People
- Peter M. Finocchio
Organizations
- United States Naval Research Laboratory