China's Empty Cradles: Demographic Implications for China's 2049 Centenary Initiative
Abstract
China's rise as a global economic power has the attention of the world and the United States in particular, and as China's power and influence grows, so grows tensions between the United States and China. This has led some to advance the theory that open military conflict between the two superpowers is inevitable. Yet, this is not the case. The source of China's economic growth is its population. Yet China fought for 35 years to stringently restrict its population under the One Child Policy. This research finds that China is thus likely to soon face a rapid demographic decline and likewise will see its economic growth decline too, perhaps well before it ever reaches it stated 2049 goals. Therefore, if cooler heads prevail, the growing tensions between China and the United States may never result in an open war, just like the Cold War never turned hot with the Soviet Union because it too faced insurmountable demographic challenges that devastated its economy.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 28, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1154009
Entities
People
- Brian M. Mccreary
Organizations
- National Defense University