Intelligent Biology: The Future Character of Information in Strategy: Forged by Cognition and Technology
Abstract
The basic cognitive nature of how human brains process information hasn't changed for millennia, including how we use information in strategy. Information is crucial for strategy aimed at others, whether that is outwitting adversaries or cooperating with allies. And even a superb strategy must be conveyed to ones own people. Humans remain central. But drivers like technology change the character of communication, societies and how we use information in strategy. This report examines key future technologies including Artificial Intelligence (AI) to ask: What will be the future character of information in strategy in 2031? To answer this question we follow a simple equation: Information in strategy (Part I) plus key technological drivers (Part II), are then combined to anticipate the character of information in strategy (Part III). Part I. Information in strategy, Strategy is the art of creating power, for which information defined as meaningful data is central. But information is not a monolithic entity, and a piece of information's impact rests on its specific features. Recommendation: Harness the key features of information (e.g. its degree of surprise), grounded in cognitive and other evidence, to cause intended effects. Moreover, information alone is not enough. Consider the chain from data as a raw material processed into information; then knowledge (ordered sets of justified enough beliefs); and wisdom (broader context for more holistic judgements). Recommendation: Digital data is exploding, which AI now turns into information but the US can derive a key edge from enhanced knowledge and wisdom, operationalized via approaches like Jointness and Net Assessment. Part II. Future technologies for 2031 Six key areas will drive change: software (e.g. AI); hardware (e.g. 6G); biology; outer space; who commands the tech (e.g. digital sovereignty over big tech); and who invents and builds the tech (e.g. more civilian than military).
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 12, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1154246
Entities
People
- Nicholas D. Wright