Quantifying the Practical Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Abstract

This proposal addressed two major purposes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast, including 1) examine a potential saturation of TC intensity errors for the U. S. Navy's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere - Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) model, and 2 understand how the maximum potential intensity imposes a limit on the intensity error saturation under different large-scale conditions beyond the traditional metrics. Outcomes from this research brought new insights into the spread of TC intensity during rapid intensification, thus providing a practical guidance to the future development of the U. S. Navy's TC models.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 31, 2021
Accession Number
AD1154614

Entities

People

  • Chanh Kieu

Organizations

  • Indiana University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Angular Momentum
  • Atmospheric Sciences
  • Boundary Layer
  • Climate
  • Cyclones
  • Dynamics
  • Environment
  • Hurricanes
  • Meteorology
  • Ocean Basins
  • Professional Development
  • Sea Surface Temperature
  • Students
  • Surface Temperature
  • Technology Transfer
  • Tropical Cyclones
  • Troposphere
  • Turbulence

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Systems Analysis and Design