Identifying Conditions Present in Gray Zone Conflicts: A Structured Focused Analysis of Gray Zone Conflict
Abstract
In 2014, Russian-speaking soldiers wearing unmarked uniforms seized the Crimean parliament building and other Crimean critical infrastructure. While uniformed and Russian-speaking, the Russian Government did not recognize these soldiers as their own. These non-flagged forces took control of the Crimean Peninsula, defeating the defending Ukrainians in a matter of days. Now colloquially known as "little green men," these soldiers of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade secured strategic access to the Black Sea and ushered in a new form of an old game. This approach is known today as gray zone conflict, and though Russia's actions caught the world off guard, the tools to potentially predict where it happens next exist within our collective history. As such, this research seeks to identify the conditions for a state to choose gray zone conflict over conventional conflict examining two case studies with a structured focus research methodology: the Platine Conflict between Argentina and Brazil, and the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While minor struggles compared to gray zone conflict between NATO and Russia today, they provide insight into the conditions present when a nation chooses gray zone conflict over conventional war to achieve geopolitical goals.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 21, 2020
- Accession Number
- AD1159384
Entities
People
- Nelson A. Lamb
Organizations
- School of Advanced Military Studies