Surprise: Past, Present, Future
Abstract
This monograph seeks to define the characteristics and elements of the Principle of Surprise over time. Additionally, changes in the operational environment, newly contested domains, and emergent capabilities will prove understanding the Principle of Surprise crucial to future US planning efforts and operations. An analysis of influential military theory and US Army doctrine reveals that Surprise is temporal in nature and manifests as both an effect to be achieved through positive action and a phenomenon that occurs when complex adaptive systems exhibit emergence. Surprise is predicated on an individual, organizational, or national misunderstanding of the operational environment. A lack of clarity in the definition of Surprise has led to this principle being maligned as an anachronism of the past. At the same time, it more accurately reflects an institutional discomfort with the evolving operational environment and the uncertainty it may contain. The context of Surprise in US Army doctrine is no longer apparent to the current practitioner. Doctrine must provide a complete definition and holistic understanding of the Principle of Surprise that enables the practitioner to employ it in competition and conflict. Furthermore, as "new" domains for potential conflict emerge and new capabilities become available, Surprise's temporal nature will hold much greater significance in future conflicts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 23, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1161177
Entities
People
- John E. Luckie
Organizations
- United States Army Command and General Staff College