Japan's Possible Acquisition of Long-Range Land-Attack Missiles and the Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Summary of a February 2021 Conference
Abstract
The growth of Chinese military power over the past three decades is raising questions about the state of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, particularly about the military capabilities Japan needs and how to best evolve Japans defense strategy within the overall framework of the U.S.-Japan alliance. One of the most widely discussed questions among defense thinkers in Japan is whether Japan needs to procure long-range, conventional land-attack precision-guided munitions (PGMs) to preserve deterrence with the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). If so, what types of platforms and weapon systems would be ideal? To strike what targets and with what concept of operations (CONOP) or in support of what theory of victory? Is a Japanese approach to deterrence based on retaliatory kinetic military operations against China plausible, given the latters substantially greater size and nuclear arsenal? If Japan does choose to develop and field such capabilities in support of an approach to deterrence premised not only on denial but also counterstrike capabilities, would this belikely to work? Noted Western defense experts and academics have already indicated deep skepticism of symmetric approaches to defense and deterrence.1 And if Japan does adopt such an approach, what implications would this carry for the U.S.-Japan allianceespecially considering that the traditional model of a shield and spear alliance relationship has given the United States an ability to manage escalation in a conflict with China and that this approach would appear likely to undercut that?
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 23, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1161716
Entities
People
- Jeffrey W. Hornung
- Satoru Mori
- Scott W. Harold
- Shinichi Kitaoka
Organizations
- RAND Corporation