Environmental Factors that Promote Tropical Cyclone Tornado Outbreaks
Abstract
Difficulty in predicting tropical cyclone (TC) tornado outbreaks persists as a problematic issue in meteorology. Research has shown some TCs produce many tornadoes when they make landfall while others do not, independent of intensity. Additionally, we don't know how shear and entrainment might be different between high-end and low-end TC tornado outbreak events. Therefore, an in-depth examination of individual storm parameters at the time of outbreak will provide new insight into distinguishing the dynamics of prolific and non-prolific tornadic outbreak TCs. TC tornado outbreaks from 1979-2020 are analyzed using the NOAA climate reanalysis dataset (NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2) to investigate the synoptic environment of 23 high-end prolific and 23 low-end non-prolific tornadic TC systems. Furthermore, research focuses on comparing the environmental factors of surface to 6 km and surface to 1 km bulk wind difference (BWD), 1-6 km average relative humidity (RH), MLCAPE, MLECAPE, and MLECAPE P20 for prolific TC tornado events to non-prolific events. We were able to produce two soundings for initial conditions from composite plots to run a non-hydrostatic Cloud Model 1 (CM1). Two runs of a composite of prolific and non-prolific TC tornado events are used to test the differences in vertical velocity, surface and 1km vorticity. The results will help better understand TC tornado outbreak environmental factors for improved forecast predictions and resource protection.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1164969
Entities
People
- Christopher R. Mortenson
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School