Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century

Abstract

The authors examined potential effects that emerging technologies could have on U.S. national security policy and identified long-term effects that these technologies might have on effectiveness and stabilitytwo major aspects of deterrent relationships. They did this by pursuing several phases of analysis. First, they selected a specific set of eight technology areas from the numerous technologies that could play a role in shaping the practice of deterrence. They then took several complementary steps to assess the problem of deterrence, competitors views of it, and possible criteria for evaluating the effects of technologies. In parallel with these research efforts, they conducted in-depth assessments of each of the eight technology areas. Finally, they employed four discrete lines of analysisfour lensesto generate possible causal relationships between the eight technology areas and deterrence outcomes. This report highlights two overarching findings of this analysis. First, collections of emerging technologiesespecially in the realms of information aggression and manipulation, automation (including automated decision support systems), hypersonic systems, and unmanned systemshold dramatic implications for both the effectiveness and stability of deterrence. Second, an emerging transition to new ways of warfare, empowered by these same emerging technologies, poses more general risks to U.S. deterrent policies than does any single technology or set of technologies.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2022
Accession Number
AD1166723

Entities

People

  • Alexis A. Blanc
  • Ashley L. Rhoades
  • Christian Johnson
  • Clint Reac
  • Dara Massicot
  • Derek Eaton
  • Edward Geist
  • Emily Yoder
  • Jasmin Lveill
  • Katie Feistel
  • Krista Langeland
  • Michael J. Mazarr
  • Nathan Beauchamp-mustafaga
  • Padmaja Vedul
  • Samantha Mcbirney
  • Stephanie Pezard
  • Timothy R. Heath

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Autonomy
  • Cyber
  • Electronic Warfare
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Engineered Resilient Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Autonomous Weapons
  • Cyberspace Operations
  • Directed Energy Weapons
  • Electronic Warfare
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Information Systems
  • International Organizations
  • Military Applications
  • Military Organizations
  • National Security
  • Network Science
  • Quantum Computing
  • Remotely Piloted Vehicles
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • Child and Adolescent Substance Abuse Science in Autism Spectrum Disorders.
  • Military Science and Technology Research and Modernization.
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • Autonomy
  • Hypersonics