Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons: Islamic State and al-Qaeda Pandemic Case Studies
Abstract
At the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), media statements from the Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda highlighted the devastating impact that the disease had on the economies of major countries around the globe. These statements put this unprecedented global event in context for followers and gave them instructions on how to survive. These groups' interpretation of events was that the pandemic was a divine means of affirming their worldview, but this initial reaction did not translate into a determined pursuit of biological agents as a means of violence, as some policymakers and analysts had feared might happen. Over the course of the past 25 years, various violent Islamist terrorists have expressed interest in unconventional weapons. The publicly available evidence that the IS sought biological weapons is very thin and might never be known with a high degree of confidence. However, the group did use chlorine, an industrial chemical, as a weapon; the IS also produced and used some sulfur mustard agent. This use of chemical agents as a weapon is the first significant use by a nonstate actor since the Aum Shinrikyo, a Japanese cult group, released liquid sarin nerve agent on the Tokyo subway in 1995. Although the IS's development and use of sulfur agent is technologically easier to achieve than biological weapons, it serves in this study as a proxy for assessing the likelihood of members seeking to develop, produce, weaponize, and use biological materials as weapons. Al-Qaeda sought to add biological weapons to its terrorist arsenal but ultimately abandoned the effort. Expressions of interest in biological and chemical weapons by militant Islamist groups have not translated into successful efforts. Rather, these groups have taken a portfolio management approach to violent means.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1170260
Entities
People
- John V. Parachini
- Rohan Gunaratna
Organizations
- RAND Corporation