Russia: the Decaying Great Power

Abstract

The US military can leverage scenario planning as a proactive methodology to learn from the future. Scenarios offer plausible futures to compare current strategies to identify shortfalls in approaches. This monograph analyzes Russia's future through Peter Schwartz's scenario planning methodology, discusses two potential scenarios that could occur, and then analyzes and assesses the current US strategy. The outcome illustrates a United States that is unprepared today for a wide array of Russian futures. To adapt, the United States must explore the strengths of competitive strategies and create a tailored alliance strategy. A tailored alliance strategy can create elasticity amongst allies against the backdrop of demographic decline in vital US allies, resource scarcity, and rising global competition.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 20, 2021
Accession Number
AD1173638

Entities

People

  • Samuel J. Shamburg

Organizations

  • United States Army Command and General Staff College

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  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Weapons Technologies

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