A Framework for Assessing Facility-Level Vulnerability and Risk to Extreme Weather Events
Abstract
Intensifying extreme weather events, tied to the rise in the global average temperature, put global built infrastructure at risk. This presents a daunting challenge for organizational leaders who are tasked to determine how best to adapt current infrastructure to uncertain future events. To develop adaptation plans and policies, vulnerability and risk must be downscaled to an actionable scale, such that planners, designers, and engineers can make adaptation recommendations. However, previous research has largely assessed risk at coarser scales, e.g., regional, national, or global. These assessments are informative, but do not help those tasked to lead adaptation to make detailed, actionable plans. This research focuses on the production of a methodological framework for downscaling extreme event threats to calculate vulnerability and risk at the facility. Using Tyndall Air Force Base (TAFB) as a case study, a building envelope and profile fragility curve-based framework is proposed and tested that uses existing facility attributes to calculate vulnerability to hurricane-force winds. Vulnerabilities are translated to risk using historical return periods for Saffir-Simpson-scale hurricanes. Outputs for Tyndall AFB suggest that risk is highest for Category 2 and 3 storms, and that relative facility vulnerability rankings are stable for Category 3 and larger storms. Generally, this framework provides planners, designers, engineers, and decision makers with the information necessary to determine the extreme-event risk for their facilities such that they may prioritize adaptations, wholistically assess campus-level risk, and determine design events.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1173770
Entities
People
- Blake A. Gawlik
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology