Lack of Experimental Data Limits the Use of Diagnostic Systems to Detect Biological Attacks and Outbreaks
Abstract
In the absence of effective environmental sampling, the military medical system will likely provide the first indication of a biological warfare attack. Accurate and timely diagnostic results provide critical situational awareness that informs the implementation of disease response measures, revised planning, and treatment of ill individuals. The Institute for Defense Analyses evaluated how various tactics techniques and procedures for the collection and analysis of clinical specimens influence the timing and accuracy of diagnostic test results. The analysis included a scientific literature review, the results of which we used to characterize the times during a given diseases progression that a given diagnostic test can generate accurate results. For multiple combinations of diseases and diagnostic technologies of interest, we were unable to find sufficient data to characterize when during the course of illness the diagnostic technology would generate accurate results. Of the disease and diagnostic technology combinations of interest for which sufficient data was available, high test sensitivity at or before symptom onset was not common. To further assess the disease and technology combinations that we found sufficient data on, we developed a stochastic individual based model to simulate disease progression, patient movement, and clinical specimen collection and analysis following a biological exposure event. We then analyzed the modeling results to determine how changes in tactics, techniques, and procedures for specimen collection and analysis affect the timing and accuracy of diagnostic results.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2021
- Accession Number
- AD1174519
Entities
People
- Kristen A. Bishop
- Robert L. Cubeta
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses