Deterrence By Denial to Prevent a Russian Invasion of The Baltic States
Abstract
The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the ineffectiveness of the current U.S. and NATO deterrence by punishment strategy to produce the substantial effects necessary to stop Russian aggression. If Russia proves successful in Ukraine, momentum could lead to a future Russian invasion of the Baltic States. To deter this possibility from becoming a reality, the U.S. and NATO must protect their vulnerable Baltic State allies by doing more. Studies indicate shifting to a deterrence by denial strategy with adjustments to force posture, protection, and firepower within the region are essential. This paper identifies the realm of possibility regarding how to prevent the escalation of conflict in the Baltic States by deterring Russia's most dangerous course of action. It explains how a deterrence by denial strategy can be more effective than the current strategy in three key areas: forward forces, defensive posture, and degrading Russian Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) capabilities. Finally, the paper provides recommendations on how these key areas can be adjusted to have an impact, and draws conclusions to suggest more must be done to deter Russia's interest in an invasion of the Baltic States.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 13, 2022
- Accession Number
- AD1174670
Entities
People
- Melissa Mckinney
Organizations
- Naval War College