Cross-Strait Calculus: Navigating Taiwanese-PRC Tensions

Abstract

A common narrative increasingly suggests a sense of urgency and inevitability regarding the forcible reunification of Taiwan by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). This narrative over-simplifies the PRCs decision-making regarding the use of force to rudimentary arithmetic based on several months activities. In reality, the PRCs decision-making is more akin to a multi-variable calculus problem based on decades (if not centuries) of complex history. A qualitative examination of historical vignettes reveals four possible PRC responses armed attack, grey zone attacks (below the level of armed conflict), coercive ("bully") diplomacy, and diplomacy. Moreover, these vignettes suggest militarily, diplomatically, and economically constraining the PRCs relative power as the most effective approach to promote Cross-Strait peace.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 12, 2022
Accession Number
AD1174861

Entities

People

  • Kyle Hanratty

Organizations

  • Naval War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Agreements
  • Air Defense
  • Aircraft Carriers
  • Calculus
  • Department Of Defense
  • Deterrence
  • Diplomacy
  • East China Sea
  • Foreign Military Sales
  • Generic Drugs
  • Gray Zone
  • Information Operations
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • Military Capabilities
  • Military Reserves
  • National Governments
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Political Systems
  • Republic
  • Security
  • Treaties
  • United States
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Asian Economic Studies
  • Systems Analysis and Design