An Innovative Probabilistic Approach to Risk-Based Validation

Abstract

Current system, product, and service validation processes encompass a limited number of ad hoc system-level scenarios in which the system, process, or service is evaluated against the stakeholders' goals. However, budgetary and schedule constraints almost always limit validation scenarios, which reduces confidence in the validation process. In this study, we have developed a risk-based validation approach in which scenario selection is based on the importance and magnitude of the risk they can retire. We have presented an exemplar acquisition problem and attendant scenarios that can benefit from this approach. The exemplar problem is acquisition of a UAV-based forest fire detection system. This problem was selected because it is sufficiently rich in terms of scenario modifiers and sufficiently complex to demonstrate our innovative risk-based validation approach. In a potential Phase II, we will implement this methodology and demonstrate its efficacy and effectiveness on an acquisition problem of interest to the DoD and its customers. We intend to transition the software to Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a transitionsite, and any other DoD-recommended transition sites.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 08, 2021
Accession Number
AD1175304

Entities

People

  • Azad M. Madni
  • Dan Erwin

Organizations

  • University of Southern California

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Autonomy
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Acquisition
  • California
  • Department Of Defense
  • Deployment
  • Detection
  • Engineering
  • Engineers
  • Forest Fires
  • Jet Propulsion
  • Models
  • Probability
  • Reliability
  • Reliability Engineering
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Safety
  • Simulations
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
  • Validation

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Systems Analysis and Design