The Prospect of Victory: Applying Prospect Theory for Decision Making in Counterinsurgency Operations

Abstract

This paper examines policy makers decision making using prospect theory (a decision making theory rooted in economics),as an analysis tool within the context of specific COIN operations. The counterinsurgency campaigns chosen for this paper are the British in Malaya, and the French in Algeria. This examination is a useful tool to demonstrate both the political aim in the use of military force and the amount of military effort a policy maker is willing to exert. Prospect theory will allow policy makers to more accurately frame the problem, define a desired end-state, monitor progress throughout a COIN campaign, and clarify the tension between international interests and domestic politics.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 30, 2017
Accession Number
AD1176524

Entities

People

  • Jared W Ledbetter

Organizations

  • Marine Corps University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Army
  • Counterinsurgency
  • Disinformation Operations
  • Domestic
  • Foreign Policy
  • Governments
  • Human Behavior
  • Information Operations
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • Law Enforcement
  • Monitoring
  • New York
  • Second World War
  • Societies
  • War

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.