Holistic Assurance Frameworks: Fast Time Emergent Scenario Simulation (FTESS)

Abstract

One of the challenges in designing and operating systems composed of interacting components is validating that the emergent behavior of the system does not cause one or more components to migrate, over time, into a hazardous operating state. Research on several modern airline accidents exhibit the characteristics of Interaction Accidents no component failed, but the interaction of components resulted in a hazardous state. Due to the dependence on time, emergent behavior cannot be evaluated by analysis of the design. In theory, it can be evaluated by Digital-Twin agent-based simulations. However, running these simulations to uncover rare event emergent hazardous states is prohibitive due to: (1) the combinatorics of initial states of each of the components, and the (2) combinatorics of the time dimension (i.e. small variations in timing can result in very different outcomes).Deep Learning Neural Networks (DLNN) have shown promise to capture the underlying combinatoric behavior as well as compress the time dimension.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 08, 2022
Accession Number
AD1176710

Entities

People

  • Ali K. Raz
  • Brett Berlin
  • James Baldo
  • Jie Xu
  • John Shortle
  • Lance Sherry
  • Ran Ji

Organizations

  • George Mason University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Agent-Based Simulations
  • Aircrafts
  • Algorithms
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Data Sets
  • Deep Learning
  • Digital Twins
  • Engineering
  • Machine Learning
  • Neural Networks
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Reliability
  • Simulations
  • System Of Systems
  • Systems Engineering
  • Training

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Distributed Systems and Data Platform Development
  • Mathematical Modeling and Probability Theory.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML